Most everything comes down to supply and demand, but timing also plays a role. Most price guides for collectibles deal only with cold, hard numbers. Most times it's nothing more than an educated guess or based on old information.

Silver strikes are different from traditional collectibles. They are probably the only item which cannot be purchased at a set price when first released. Although most current Nevada strikes have a face-value of $10, it could cost someone upwards of $200 to win a single token from a machine (spoken by someone who got taken to the cleaners one night at the Las Vegas Imperial Palace). And I'm not referencing a chase strike here! I'm talking about a common new release.

While collectors determine the demand for any piece of memorabilia, it is the owners of these items that determine the supply. Someone who just spent $60 to get a silver strike from Silverton's machine isn't likely to immediately sell it for $15.00 either through auction or on a website. And if they aren't under severe financial strain they'll just hold onto the strike hoping to recoup most of their money in a few years.

But there are always exceptions. Logic will always fall to emotion. At least three silver strike designs have a stigma to them:
[a] Four Queens "Millennium" series of 4.
Plaza "Two-Fer"
[c] O'Sheas "Double-sided Decision"

They are considered almost more like a "special dealer" item. Many collectors don't feel as though everyone had a fair opportunity to receive one. Face it, there wasn't that much luck to getting a "Two-Fer" or "Indecision" strike. People sat at a machine and played through at least one rack of strikes. When word spread that hirelings were being used it turned off a lot of people. The casual collector, without deep pockets and a lot of free time, who occasionally visits Las Vegas was being placed over a barrel. It was no longer a matter of luck by being in the right place at the right time without realizing how fortunate they were (like with unannounced short-run strikes). It created a very business-like situation in people's minds.

The Four Queens "Millennium" debacle really started the whole thing. Only one initial minting was done for the "Millennium" strikes. By all normal accounts, these should be considered very tough-to-find and desirable strikes. But the fact that primarily one person was able to purchase the entire remaining run from the cage, a few weeks after casino slot management stated they weren't for sale and would be returned for destruction, caused a great deal of outrage.

While the "millennium" strikes were in play, during late January 2000, they were going for around $20 to $30 a piece on the collector market. Once it was announced the strikes were no longer available, after only two weeks, the prices shot up to peak at just over $200 each! Then casino management decided to sell the strikes at the cage and an individual saw a chance to make a killing by slaughtering collectors. They listed auctions and sold the strikes directly to collectors at the highly inflated prices. And the dealer kept selling and selling and selling and selling. Many complete sets went for more than $700. Demand went to less than $120 per set by the time collectors found out what had happened and who had all of the strikes. All the price changes took place in less than two months. Currently, the Four Queens "Millennium" set of 4 goes for just under $150.

Both luckily and unluckily for me, I was hospitalize for complications with gallstones at the time when Four Queens "Millennium" prices went nuts. Even though I wouldn't have known it at the time, I would have felt pretty bad auctioning off something at $200 which would be down to $35 within a month. I guess that's what separates a businessman from a hobbyist. Business can easily become cutthroat without any thought given about anything except the bottomline. Hobbies are generally something to be nurtured because you plan to be involved with them for a very long time.

Ideally a business will strive for a middle ground, but only if it plans for the future. They've got to give a little back to the community as a whole to be successful. Otherwise the businessman is easily classified as opportunistic and selfish.

KINGDINOSAUR